Not a Market to Sit Out: What Southwest Florida’s Economy Signals for 2026

2025 is in the rearview mirror, and many of us are trying to make sense of where the economy is headed in 2026. I spent the past several weeks attending economic outlook events across Southwest Florida, listening to a wide range of voices tied to development, finance, and market activity.

In mid-December, I attended the SWFL Commercial Real Estate State of the Market in Fort Myers, where developers in multifamily, industrial, office, and retail shared insights from Charlotte, Lee, and Collier Counties. In early January, I attended the Tampa Bay Economic Outlook, hearing from Mayor Jane Castor, Chief Economist for Fifth Third Bank, and Andrew Wright of Franklin Street. Most recently, I attended an event at my local association featuring Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Despite different markets and perspectives, the message was consistent: Florida, especially Southwest Florida, remains one of the best places in the country to live and work. Population growth continues at a strong pace, and that momentum shows no signs of slowing. Anyone who spends time on our roads can see it firsthand! U-Haul’s latest Growth Index placed Florida with eight of the top ten growth cities and twelve of the top twenty-five nationwide.

Even in what’s been described as a slower residential market, Lakewood Ranch ranked as the second fastest-growing master-planned community in the country in 2025.

That population growth continues to drive demand across commercial sectors. Retail and small offices remain highly competitive, with low vacancy and rising rents. Industrial demand softened in 2025 for buildings over 50,000 square feet and may remain soft in 2026, while smaller industrial spaces under 10,000 square feet remain in short supply. Multifamily absorption slowed in 2025, with concessions becoming common, a trend likely to continue through 2026 before stabilizing in 2027.

For business owners, investors, and developers navigating 2026, the takeaway is clear: this is not a market to sit on the sidelines, but it is one that rewards thoughtful, well-timed decisions. While certain sectors may experience short-term adjustments, the fundamentals remain solid. Those who stay informed, understand the cycles, and focus on real local data—not headlines—will be best positioned to find opportunity as the market continues to evolve.