- April 2, 2025
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Five of the top 10 housing markets nationwide with the steepest drop in average sales price, according to a new report, are in Florida and four of them — Tampa, Sarasota Fort Myers and Winter Haven — are on the west coast of the state.
The report, from property data analytics firm Cotality, formerly CoreLogic, also says Florida and Arizona are home to the housing markets with the highest risk of price decline.
Meanwhile, three of five markets the firm is tracking that have "the highest risk of price decline" are in the Sunshine State. No. 1 on that list is Winter Haven, in Polk County, where the median home price in January, the most recent data available, was $314,950. That's down slightly from a four-year peak in July 2022, but up 34% from January 2021 from $234,900.
Tampa is No. 3 on the highest risk of price decline list, while West Palm Beach is No. 5.
"Flattening home price changes over the last six months suggest further price deceleration is ahead. More importantly, compressed monthly changes highlight the general lack of home buying demand that continues to characterize the current housing market," says Cotality Chief Economist Selma Happ in the report. "While this year's cold winter and large natural disasters play a role in dampening demand, falling consumer sentiment suggests potential homebuyers are wary of the short-term economic outlook and future inflation. Nevertheless, with the spring homebuying season upon us, the recent improvements in mortgage rates may help invite homebuyers back into the market."
Cotality says its method involves combining analytics with economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score from 1 to 100 on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro — a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
