Navigating a whitewater world: Leadership in uncertain times

“Everything just feels so out of control.”

“I feel like time is running away with me, and I can’t pull out of the weeds of one crisis after the next.”

These are the voices echoing across the region’s business community. The reality is that the world of work has changed, permanently. From economic uncertainty and talent shortages to accelerating AI adoption and the aftershocks of a post-pandemic world, leaders are navigating what psychologists Gabriella Rosen Kellerman and Martin E.P. Seligman call a "white water world” in their book “Tomorrowmind: Thriving at Work with Resilience, Creativity and Connection — Now and in an Uncertain Future.”

We no longer face a business environment of predictable, incremental change. Instead, it’s one of constant disruption — where adaptability, resilience and the ability to lead through complexity are non-negotiable. In the face of external forces beyond our control, the strongest leaders focus on what they can control: equipping themselves and their teams with what they need to successfully navigate the “white waters.”

Reframing leadership: From overwhelm to agency

As executive coaches, we work with business leaders to shift their mindset. 

Rather than dwelling on what is overwhelming, frustrating and uncontrollable, the key is to refocus energy on what is within one’s sphere of influence. At every moment, leaders have agency. At every moment, leaders have a choice. In every moment, there is something a leader can control.

Rather than viewing employees as costs to mitigate, organizations that thrive in uncertain times see their teams as assets to maximize, according to
Peter Cappelli a professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. These successful business leaders control their investments in two critical areas:

• Talent and leadership development: ensuring employees have the skills, mindsets and knowledge necessary to navigate complexity.
• Succession planning: proactively preparing for what comes next to ensure organizational continuity and agility.

The new leadership skill set

Research from the Institute of Coaching and Tomorrowmind, meanwhile, highlights five essential capabilities for leaders in today’s unpredictable landscape:

• Prospection: The ability to anticipate future challenges and opportunities before they arrive.
• Resilience: The skill of recovering from setbacks quickly and using adversity as a springboard for growth.
• Innovation (through Friction): The ability to turn challenges, differing perspectives and tensions into creative solutions.
• Social connection: Building trust and psychological safety to foster strong, connected teams. 
• Mattering: Making a meaningful contribution and feeling valued by those around us.

These are not “nice-to-have” skills. They are essential competencies. Without investing in these areas, we risk perpetuating a system of chronic stress. When individuals operate in survival mode, they lack the cognitive and emotional capacity for skill-building, problem-solving or innovation. The consequences extend beyond the workplace: chronic stress fuels higher levels of conflict, impairs decision-making, reduces psychological well-being, increases vulnerability to mental health disorders and has been linked to increased mortality risks (McEwen, 1998, Maslach & Leiter, 2016). The question is no longer if we need a new leadership model, but how soon we will act to create one.

A practical approach: S.O.A.R. Analysis

For leaders ready to take action, the SOAR Analysis provides a structured framework to assess and develop leadership capabilities within their organization:

S – Strengths

• What do our leaders currently do well?
• What are our leaders’ greatest strengths?
• What makes our leadership team unique?

O – Opportunities

• What leadership development investments have we made?
• Are we fully utilizing the opportunities available?

What leadership development programs exist in the community?

• Do our leaders feel equipped with the resources they need?

A – Aspirations

• What type of leadership culture do we want to create?
• How do we attract and retain top talent?
• How do we develop future leaders from within?

R – Results

• How do we want our competitors, peers and community to describe our leadership?
• What data do we need to track leadership growth?
• What is the first step toward achieving our leadership aspirations?

Investing in leadership for the future

In an era where external forces remain unpredictable, the most strategic move for any organization is to invest in its people. Leaders equipped with adaptability, foresight and resilience can turn uncertainty into opportunity — driving innovation, navigating complexity and inspiring their teams to do the same.

Building leadership capacity is an immediate necessity. Outside of a SOAR Analysis, take action today by identifying someone on your team with untapped potential. Have a conversation about their aspirations, listen to their challenges and explore how you can support their development. Small, intentional steps like this help build the leadership capacity needed to navigate the future.