Growth in Florida economy to slow over next 5 years: Report

Florida’s economy is set to return to pre-pandemic levels following dramatic gains in recent years, according to Florida TaxWatch, a nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute. 

That was one of the findings in the organization’s recently released economic forecast, which projects trends through the next five years.

“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion,” Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro says in a statement. “Despite this impressive growth, Florida slipped from the 15th largest economy in the world to the 16th, which is why Florida TaxWatch continues to examine if Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.”

A slowdown in economic growth is projected from now until 2030 in the state, according to the forecast.

Florida had a real GDP growth rate of 3.5% in 2024; this is expected to decrease to 3% by 2030, according to the report. Florida’s real GDP growth rate is still projected to outpace the nation, for which the real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2029.

Florida TaxWatch also explored other economic indicators such as population, unemployment, income growth and tourism. Highlights include:

• Florida’s population is projected to continue to increase but at a slower rate. In 2024, the report says 982 people were moving to the Sunshine State each day, a growth rate of 1.6%. By 2030, that number will drop to 1.1% with 789 people moving to Florida daily. More than 20% of those leaving the state are going to Georgia, Texas or North Carolina, the report says.
• Unemployment in Florida is expected to increase over the next couple of years, according to the report. The forecast calls for it to tick up from 3.5% last year to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, where it will remain until 2029, when it is expected to go down slightly to 3.7%. Unemployment in Florida is still projected to remain below the national average.
• In 2024, Florida’s income growth — which determines the spending capacity of the population — was at 4.9%, which was lower than the national income growth rate of 5.4%. However, over the next five years, the national and state levels of income growth are expected to be nearly equal. In 2025, personal income growth in Florida and nationwide is projected to be 4.5%, the report says, decreasing to about 4.1% in 2029.
• Tourism, which brings in $359 million a day in Florida, is expected to steadily climb over the next five years. About 156.5 million visitors are projected in 2025, increasing to nearly 186 million by 2030. "Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and is responsible for $76.4 billion in employee wages," the report says.

“While Florida began 2024 with strong economic growth trends that outpaced the rest of the country,” Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp says in the statement, “it is imperative that we continue to closely monitor growth patterns every quarter and adjust government spending accordingly.”