- December 23, 2025
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A trio of commercial real estate executives in the region, in looking back at 2025 and projecting 2026, share two themes.
One is some form of optimism — one with the word cautious before it.
The other is Florida, with its population growth, pro-business climate and other factors, continues to be well-positioned to withstand broader economic challenges. (Like high interest rates.)
The Business Observer asked the brokers — one in the Lee-Collier market; one in the Sarasota-Manatee market and; one in the Tampa Bay market — two end-of-year questions: what was the most interesting deal of 2025 and what do they see coming in 2026? Edited excerpts:
Carson Baird, associate, LQ Commercial in Fort Myers
My vote goes to the sale of Sunseeker Resort Charlotte Harbor. The 785-room waterfront resort, developed by Allegiant Travel Company at a cost exceeding $700 million, was acquired by Blackstone for just $200 million. What makes it so interesting isn't solely the magnitude of the loss, but rather the story of an airline’s ambitious, yet unsuccessful, attempt to integrate a large-scale hospitality platform into its travel ecosystem.
In 2026, I expect the Southwest Florida CRE market to continue its gradual normalization — in a good way. The extremes of the post-Covid boom have cooled, but the fundamentals remain strong: continued in-migration, constrained land supply, and a diversified economic base anchored by healthcare, logistics, and service-driven industries.
Industrial vacancy rates have risen to a more balanced level, but with sustained demand from small-bay users and last-mile occupiers. Office will remain bifurcated, with newer flex product outperforming. Retail remains in tight supply, and I expect to see more of the same, supported by population growth and heavy interest from service-oriented tenants. Multifamily is still considered to be overbuilt, but we will see continued absorption and stabilization of rental/occupancy rates. Overall, 2026 should be a year defined less by volatility and more by steady, fundamentals-driven activity.
Jag Grewal, partner, Ian Black Real Estate in Sarasota
One of the most interesting deals I saw this year was the Manatee County purchase of the 101,000-square-foot office building at 9000 Town Center Parkway in Lakewood Ranch for $23.5 million. What makes that deal significant is the decision by the public sector to acquire an existing facility — rather than build from the ground up — to meet growing administrative needs. That kind of repurposing is becoming smarter and more cost-effective amid rising construction and labor costs.
As a similar example that further supports this trend, another notable deal was the City of Venice purchasing a former car dealership site at 1280 U.S. 41 Bypass South. The city acquired the 37,000-square-foot property on 4.7 acres for $11.8 million to house its solid-waste, recycling and fleet-maintenance operations — a far more fiscally prudent move than building a new 40,000-square-foot facility, which had been estimated to cost nearly $20 million.
(Grewal and Cameron Wilson with Ian Black Real Estate handled the Manatee County sale, while Grewal and Michelle Fuller with Ian Black Real Estate represented the City of Venice in that deal.)
These deals underline a growing trend: government entities are increasingly looking to repurpose existing buildings rather than embark on expensive new construction. Given the current cost pressures in commercial real estate — especially in office and industrial sectors — this strategy seems increasingly likely to repeat. It’s a smart, efficient approach that meets the needs of expanding municipalities while avoiding the steep costs and delays of new builds.
(Grewal points out this trend actually began in 2024, when Sarasota County paid just under $12 million for the former CAN Community Health headquarters in Sarasota, a prominent and sleek glass office building on Fruitville Road about halfway between Interstate 75 and downtown Sarasota. That 23,192-square-foot-office building, 4440 Fruitville, is now the Sarasota County Election Operations Center.)
We’re heading into 2026 with cautious optimism. Florida as a whole is still positioned better than most states. After 2023 and 2024 delivered some of the highest levels of activity we’ve seen — an apex of two decades of double-digit growth for our firm — we experienced a dip in 2024, which was then followed by renewed momentum this year. I expect that growth trend to continue in 2026.
Industrial remains strong, though we’re all watching to see whether recent construction has pushed us into overbuilding. Some nearby markets are seeing industrial vacancies rise, which is evidence of stress emerging in those markets, but Sarasota continues to tick along at a steady pace. Multifamily will also be an interesting space to monitor. We’ve built a tremendous number of rental units, and we’re now seeing more leasing incentives offered — so, the question is whether absorption will keep pace. With virtually no new office construction underway, that segment will likely remain stable. And, retail should perform very well in 2026.
Overall, any headwinds we encounter will be easier to manage in markets that are already stabilizing. If we see even one more interest rate cut, that would do wonders for confidence across the marketplace. Every rate adjustment seems to create a noticeable bump in optimism, and that could set the tone for a stronger-than-expected 2026.
Jeff Dervech, president, Dervech Real Estate in Tampa
2025 was a great year for deals and for the continued transformation of different pockets and submarkets across the Tampa MSA. From what Darryl Shaw continues to do in Ybor with his acquisitions and holdings, to BayCare and their continued push to capitalize on opportunities to grow and expand, to the various regional private family offices participating in smaller scale infill redevelopment projects, collectively creating critical mass while revitalizing older assets and delivering new community amenities for all to enjoy.
The single most interesting deal of 2025 was the acquisition of Britton Plaza in South Tampa by Brixmor. (The center sold Nov. 21, 2024 for $59.9 million.) The reason being that this asset has historically never been in play. The parcel is over 30 acres, located in the middle of South Tampa, great zoning, surrounded by amazing demographics with a captive audience due to its positioning on the peninsula. The opportunities are endless and Brixmor is a great company with the expertise and resources to deliver a first-class product for Tampa.
My expectation for the market in 2026 is that you will see a lot of activity and an increase in transactions in this new year. Many buyers have been on the sidelines waiting for the right deals to deploy capital and sellers have been patiently waiting for the right time to re-engage on the concept of sale. This is that time. Buyers and sellers are more inline now on pricing expectations than ever before, outlook on the interest rate environment is stable with expectations to get better or stay close to the same and well-located real estate as a hard asset continues to be a great place to invest. We are advising clients and ramping up to have a busy year ahead.
