Gulf Coast Population Boom Carries Opportunity for Sarasota and Beyond

It’s no secret that Sarasota and its surroundings have undergone explosive growth in recent years. In 2020, the most recent U.S. Census reported the county to have 434,006 residents, nearly 55,000 more than the 2010 survey showed. While the Census only occurs every 10 years, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida has been following population trends in the state since the 1970s. It estimated the 2024 population to be approximately 479,000 residents and projects that number could grow to more than 560,000 by 2030. And these figures do not consider the seasonal swelling of the region.

How the region responds to meeting the needs of this growing population is critical to the long-term economic success of the county, its residents and their businesses. A skilled workforce and affordable housing will continue to be the focal point in a puzzle that also includes rebuilding from recent storms, education, access to quality healthcare, and of course a sustainable infrastructure built to keep the county moving.

There’s No Place Like Home
It is understandable that a community experiencing such rapid growth might have trouble keeping up with the rising demand for housing. And we all know what happens to prices when demand rises.

According to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, in Sarasota County there were nearly 7,500 single-family home sales in 2024. While the median sale price saw a slight drop from the previous year, it has increased 74 percent since pre-Covid. The market for townhouses and condos paints a similar pricing, with costs up more than 62 percent since 2019.

This increased demand is of course a positive for realtors and the many trades involved in the home building process – two very important sectors to our local economy -- however it has also driven housing costs to the point of putting affordability out of reach for some residents. In fact, research from the Community Foundation of Sarasota County shows that in 2024, one-third of all Sarasota County households were housing-cost burdened. Said another way, they are spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing. Just to keep pace with expected household growth, the foundation says that nearly 14,000 affordable homes for low-income households will need to be built by 2035.

Housing affordability and availability are key to successful, sustainable population growth and to a thriving local economy because we must ensure that our local businesses have customers to support them.

Members of the public and private sectors in the region understand the importance of getting this right and have forged several partnerships to address housing demand. One such project, Sarasota Station, has received Affordable Housing Designation and bank financing for the construction of a four-building, 202-unit, multi-family complex downtown. Consisting of studio apartments, one- and two-bedroom units, a clubhouse, basketball court, dog park, business center, community center, and walking trail, construction is expected to take 24 months and units will be available for rent as each building is completed.

Strong Employment Picture
Job creation is a byproduct of population growth, but it is also a force that helps population growth continue. The Florida Chamber of Commerce predicts that by 2030 Sarasota County will require more than 31,000 new jobs -- in addition to the 9,700 current job openings – so concern about where those jobs come from is not unwarranted.

Recognizing the need to ensure access to quality, sustainable job opportunities, the local Chamber of Commerce (COC), the Economic Development Corporation (EDC) and the state have worked diligently to offer incentives to help bring new companies to the region and to help those already here expand.

Southwest Florida clearly has a lot to offer from a quality-of-life perspective – from beautiful beaches and access to outstanding healthcare and schools to world-class recreation and performing arts venues. It’s not surprising that in 2024 alone, the EDC completed six business attraction and expansion projects creating hundreds of new jobs.

This work, coupled with plans to develop 675,000 square feet of Business Park space over the next three years and an additional 6 to 8 million square feet over the next decade, are one of the many attractive reasons companies and their employees are relocating here.

With a cost-competitive market for doing business, Sarasota is in a position to experience continued growth within several key industries including manufacturing, technology, healthcare and biotech / life science.

Consider the manufacturing industry, Sarasota’s proximity to international airports, deepwater ports and easy access to the Interstate, makes it easy to see why this is an attractive location for manufacturers of all sizes looking to distribute their products seamlessly.

And it’s not about Silicon Valley for the tech industry anymore. With a top-rated education system paired with customized information technology (IT) training centers, Sarasota is training the next generation. It is no wonder Sarasota was ranked #4 among all MSAs in the U.S. for tech talent growth between 2019 and 2022 according to a LinkedIn Workforce Insights report.

But it’s not all about job growth from new companies moving here. The COC’s CareerEdge program collaborates with private companies to help meet their employment needs while also helping those who may not have pursued a traditional college degree receive the training, internships, licensing or certificates they need to enter the workforce or grow their career opportunities.

Economic Impact of Storm Recovery
We all know it has been a rough few years from a hurricane perspective. But while the damage has been extensive to parts of the region, it is inspiring to see the resilience shown by businesses and homeowners. As impacted members of our community pick up the pieces to rebuild and bring older structures up to code, they are playing an important role in driving job opportunities within the construction ecosystem.

The Infrastructure Imperative
It only takes a quick drive anywhere on I-75 to see that development has been vast and ongoing. With residential and infrastructure projects in varying stages of completion on diamond interchanges; highway exit ramp and bridge expansions; extensive new housing communities; and new terminals and parking at Sarasota International Airport; the need for better infrastructure has never been greater. Even as the above projects move towards completion, congestion on the I-74 and I-4 corrdiors is evidence of the area’s continued need for additional infrasructure.

As a result, job opportunities are plentiful for the talents of the skilled workers such as electricians, plumbers, ironworkers and HVAC technicians needed to complete the commercial and infrastructure projects that will keep our community moving freely and thriving for years to come.

With a low unemployment rate, a population that continues to grow and exciting projects underway to serve the needs and interests of our community, the future of work and life on the Gulf Coast is bright indeed. Synovus is committed to ensuring the place we live and work continues to thrive for the long-term.

Kevin Gillen is Market Executive at Synovus Bank, serving Southwest and Central Florida.