Report: California to lose four congressional seats, Florida to gain three

The Golden State is on the cusp of losing some of its shine — at least when it comes to representation in the U.S. Congress. And California’s loss will be Florida’s gain. 

The prediction comes from the American Redistricting Project, which analyzed 2030 state population projections released late last year by the U.S. Census Bureau. ARP is an arm of the Alexandria, Virginia-based Fair Lines America Foundation, a nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to educating the public on American redistricting. 

ARP, according to additional reporting from The Center Square California, estimates California will lose four seats, New York will lose three, Illinois will lose two and Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will lose one each due to population migration trends out of those states. 

On the potential plus side, ARP reports Texas will pick up four, Florida will pick up three and Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee and Utah will each gain one seat.  

While people move for lots of reasons that have nothing to do with politics, it’s hard to ignore the red-blue state divide in the projections. All seven states projected to lose congressional seats have Democratic governors. Pennsylvania is the only one of the seven states on that list with a Republican control of the state house and senate; in the other six states, both legislative chambers and the governor’s office are Democrat-controlled. 

States projected to gain congressional seats lean much more Republican. Texas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Tennessee and Utah all have Republican governors and Republican majorities in the state house and senate. Republicans control the legislature but not the governorship in North Carolina and Arizona.