Tampa home prices tripled since 2013

If you bought a nice home in Tampa in 2013 — and it's still a nice home — congratulations. You did better than the stock market, as your home could be worth 205% more than just 10 years ago.

That's the conclusion of Construction Coverage, a construction research firm based in California. Their most recent research indicates that of all big U.S. cities, only Detroit outpaced Tampa's median home valuations. (If that seems odd to you, consider Detroit had a program of tearing down blighted homes to increase value of remaining stock.)

The news arrives as interest rates and U.S. home prices are coming down after the COVID-19 recession and its work-from-home recovery helped drive up housing valuations. That impact is still being felt, especially in Tampa Bay and Florida as a whole. And over the past decade, which has included recoveries from two recessions, U.S. home values grew by more than 100%, says Construction Coverage.

In 2013 in Tampa, the median home price was $127,755. Today, Tampa has a median home price of $391,949 — an increase of 206.8%, Construction Coverage says.

Tampa was not the only Gulf Coast city that made the three lists Construction Coverage published. For mid-sized cities, St. Petersburg also ranked No. 2, with 212.7% growth. Only Kansas City, Kansas, outranked St. Pete, with 257.4% growth.

And for smaller cities, Lehigh Acres came in at No. 2 (277.4%); Lakeland at No. 8 (186.5%); Clearwater at No. 12 (177.5%); and Brandon came at No. 15 (166.7%).

The firm noted that the 100% jump in housing prices nationally is outpacing wages and even inflation.

"In comparison, average hourly earnings saw a modest 41% increase, while the Consumer Price Index rose by just 32%," Construction Coverage says. "Consequently, housing affordability has taken a hit, while homeowners have seen substantial gains in their real estate wealth."

It's likely a historical trend, for now, the firm says.

"While recent price increases were amplified by unique factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic, above-average home price growth is a recurring trend in the aftermath of economic recessions," the firm says. "Following previous downturns, U.S. housing experienced robust upswings, with median prices increasing by an average of 32.7% over a five-year period. Although the brief COVID-19 recession led to an unprecedented 49% national increase from 2020 to 2022, prices have since stabilized, aligning the recovery more closely with historical norms."

But the silver aligning has a cloud: "Despite a recent decline in sale prices, the confluence of persistent inflation eroding purchasing power and mortgage rates exceeding 7% has offset any potential relief for aspiring homebuyers. Consequently, monthly housing costs have recently hit a historic peak, deterring would-be buyers and causing a 12% year-over-year decline in home sales."