Economic forecast

Everyone who has lived in Florida for some time knows: housing drives economic activity. So when the Business Observer asked business leaders to predict what 2015 holds for the region's economy, it's not surprising that most of them said the housing recovery meant good things for their companies and industries.

Forecasting the economy these past few years was predictably unpredictable. Last year we heard the phrase “cautiously optimistic” so much it became cliche. But this year, it appears stability has settled in and confidence is returning, although it's still admittedly tepid.

Yet even if only a few of the business owners interviewed were enthusiastically optimistic, most pointed to signs of good times to come: builders are building, workers are working, and people are once again spending.

But with more work comes more problems. Only these are the kind businesses are happier to have, things like finding qualified workers and managing growth effectively.

Although they are better than the alternative, these problems can nonetheless hamstring growth in the area. A labor shortage has already begun to affect technology and construction firms, which limits their ability to grow and meet demand.

Many business owners also pointed to two sectors they see growing the most: health care and construction. It may seem obvious given our region's ability to attract baby boomers who are ready to retire now that their portfolios are in better shape, but the data also back up the trend.

See the charts to the right, which are based on data from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. One shows the increase in residential building permits, in which the increase in building bodes well for the recovery continuing in 2015. The second chart shows the industries projected to add the most jobs by 2021. They mostly reflect the gain in housing: jobs that service a growing population are increasing, and those that don't will continue to disappear.

It makes sense that as the factors fueling the population gains remain steady, the economy will strengthen. But as the rebound continues, many business owners say they're still slightly hesitant — perhaps it's a lingering lesson from the downturn. David Young, a landscape architect based in Sarasota, put it best: “Everyone seems to be doing better,” he says. “But I feel like we are all holding our breath.”