Employment outlook is hazy

Surveys are tricky, as any professional pollster will tell you.

Often, the results depend on how surveys phrase a question and who answers it. Consider two recent surveys of executives in the Fort Myers area, one by Manpower and the other by Florida Gulf Coast University.

The Manpower survey says the Cape Coral-Fort Myers employment outlook for the third quarter is stagnant, with 15% of employers planning to hire and an equal number planning to fire.

By contrast, a survey of Lee County executives by Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers reported that 56% plan to hire over the next year and just 2% plan to reduce staff. Of the companies that plan to add staff, 32% plan to boost their payrolls by 20% to 29%.

Why the contrast? We suspect the seasonal nature of business in Southwest Florida may be partly to blame. The Manpower survey asks executives for their employment outlook for the third quarter, traditionally the slowest quarter of the year for seasonal business such as tourism and real estate.

The FGCU survey asks employers for a full-year employment plan. In the Fort Myers area, businesses tend to hire late in the year for the season ahead.