A jingle of good news on holiday sales

Cash registers will ring more loudly this holiday season than in 2011, the Florida Chamber Foundation's Scorecard predicts. Rising consumer confidence is expected to stimulate sales, according to the Scorecard.

A survey from the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research shows that consumer confidence has reached a post-recession high, says Rick Sessa, research and policy manager for the chamber foundation. The survey index value reached 80 in September, with 100 serving as the index base. “We haven't seen a number this high since before 2007,” says Sessa.

A year earlier, in September 2011, the state index measured 64. Before the recession devastated financial markets, the confidence index measured 93 in November 2006 in Florida, and 92.1 nationally.

“In Florida, the economy was expanding pretty slowly last year,” explains Sessa. “GDP growth was only about .5% annually, and we still had a pretty high unemployment rate.” In September 2011, Florida's unemployment rate stood at 10.4%, but it dropped to 8.7% by September 2012, he says.

Although the slump in stock market prices since the presidential election could make some would-be shoppers hesitant to spend, particularly if their portfolio values have dropped, nationally, confidence remains on the rise. The newly released University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey shows a five-year high in consumer confidence, says Sessa. “That's a little bit of good news for us.”

As for shopping, Sessa has already done his part, stimulating the economy with the purchase of a new iPhone 5, and he won't be making any big buys in December. “I think I treated myself for this year.”