Snowbird Economists

Jack Ablin, the chief investment officer for Harris Private Bank, is driving down Interstate 75 between Sarasota and Naples, calling on clients who spend their winters here.

Meanwhile, John Augustine, chief investment strategist for Fifth Third Private Bank, is doing the same thing while driving on Alligator Alley between Naples and Fort Lauderdale.

At an Urban Land Institute gathering in Estero, SunTrust Banks Chief Economist Gregory Miller gets top billing. Investors, developers and builders stick around to hear what he has to say.

Like rock stars on tour, Ablin, Augustine, Miler and a host of economic and investment soothsayers are cruising Florida's highways, stopping at conferences, bank branches and hotels to offer their latest prognostications.

It's fair to say that on balance, they're sounding more optimistic than they have in the last few years. But they're also cautious about Florida's outlook.

“Florida's a little worse off owing to the fact that a lot of business relied on construction,” says Ablin. “It has rebounded back to a lesser degree than the rest of the country.”

Many companies in Florida have shown revenue growth, but it's not because of new business coming into the state. “Businesses are expanding, but I get a growing sense that it's coming at the expense of competitors, not a growing market,” Ablin says.

Still, because valuations are low and financing is relatively cheap, now may be a good time to make acquisitions, Ablin says.

That's also Augustine's advice to business owners who have made it through the Great Recession and have fortified their balance sheets. “In a slow economy, you go out and gain scale; buy a competitor, a new geography,” Augustine says. “That's tough for businesses to do right now, but that's what the textbooks say.”

Many companies today have large cash cushions and can afford to position their firms for future growth. “Sometimes you have to do what you're not comfortable doing for the long term,” Augustine says. “This environment is one in which we're all sitting on our hands. We're trying to plant the seed of action.”

Still, capital remains constrained because of government watchdogs. “Banks are not lending at the rates we expect,” says Miller. “They're scared to death, I promise you that's the reason.”

Miller says he's concerned about inflation driven by wage and other business costs. “It's here now,” says Miller. “It's not overwhelming, but it's back.”

Still, Miller says Florida's population growth is resuming. “We're back to doing what we're supposed to do,” he says. “Tourism is the big winner.”