Home price forecast: more stability

Orlando's metropolitan area ranks third out of five major housing markets forecast to see price gains for the July to December period, while the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area is predicted to come in as the sixth worst.

The Clear Capital Home Data Index Forecast shows Tampa Bay losing 4.7% in value in the six months, but that's better than the 7.2% decline for the first half of the year.

Of the 15 lowest performing markets, none is forecast to yield gains for 2011, but nine of the 15, including Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater, are expected to maintain or slow their price declines as compared to the first half of 2011.

“While most individual markets are also projected to post losses for the year, it is clear prices have begun to level off and are not exhibiting as much volatility as we've seen since the downturn began,” says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, in a release.

The California-based firm provides data and solutions for real estate asset valuation and risk assessment for large financial services companies.

Overall, U.S. home prices fell 3.2% in the first half of the year and are forecast to slide another 2.4% in the second half of 2011.

Clear Capital forecasts Orlando area prices to rise an average of 0.7% after a 0.1% drop for the January to June period.

Topping Orlando are the Washington D.C. and New York City metro areas, expected to gain 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

However, D.C.'s second-half gain would mark a slowdown from its 4.4% rise during the first half of the year. In the Big Apple, prices would accelerate from its 1.9% gain this year. Dallas and San Francisco are the other two major markets forecast to achieve price gains in the second half.

Clear Capital forecasts the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami Beach area to move in the opposite direction, going from a gain of 0.6% to a loss of 1.2%, but that still puts the region at number 12 among the highest performing major markets. Ten of the highest performing markets are forecasted to improve from their first half's performance, but only the five — including Orlando — are expected to have modest gains.