We've built it ...

We've built it ...

Population by Rob Brannon | Contributing Writer

Florida for years has counted on Baby Boomers. But recent red flags indicate our population may be stagnating instead of rising.

According to the latest census data and a host of projections, Florida's population continues to increase.

But recent months have brought red flags. Chief among them is school data, which shows Florida enrollment stagnating, and oft-cited reports from moving lines that indicate they are hired more often to move people out of the state than into it. Those reports could portend a troubling truth - hurricanes, insurance rates, taxes, property values and the market slump have had the effect of making Florida less desirable to potential future residents. The state's growth economy has prepared for years for a promised influx of Baby Boomers. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there were more than 78 million Boomers in 2005, and there will be nearly 58 million in 2030. In 2006, the first batch turned 60. They should start arriving soon. Are they still coming?

Taking a breath

A local warning sign is population growth. Manatee, the 17th largest county in the state, had a population of 313,298 in 2006. That was up about 2.3%, the smallest percentage of growth this decade. Every incorporated area except Palmetto lost population. That reduces the government's income.

"An economy that is taking a correction is not good for government," said Manatee County Commissioner Donna Hayes.

A few years ago, Manatee was hopping. The home market was skyrocketing, and the county breathlessly tried to keep up. Many gleefully exclaimed that the market was fantastic, and the Boomers hadn't even arrived.

"For a while there, we did experience a situation where we were trying to do improvements, but before we even got to them, more improvements were needed," Hayes said.

Times have changed. Through June, Manatee County was down 31% on new applications in the planning department compared to last year. In June 2006, 29 new applications arrived. This year, there were 15.

During the boom, said Planning Director Carol Clarke, there were more coming in than could ever possibly be done, and if a potential developer wasn't prepared, there was another right behind in line. Now, she said, the department has changed the way it approaches its responsibilities.

Builders have changed as well, Clarke said. The freewheeling days are long gone, and people want to move more quickly on projects.

"Part of that is there's a much tighter margin for people," she said. "There's much less room to play."

The slowdown hasn't affected the transportation department's road improvement plans, said Director Harry Mendenhall. There's a whole list of future developments still on the books, he said, for which improvements must be made. The timetable of their arrival may slow down, but as long as forecasts continue to project population increases, work must continue, Mendenhall said.

One of those forecasts, released last year by Fishkind & Associates, predicts Manatee will gain nearly 20,000 more people before 2009, ballooning to a population of 341,409. Statewide, the U.S. Census Bureau seems to be on board. It predicts Florida will blossom from about 18 million in 2006 to more than 28 million by 2030, passing New York as the nation's third largest state.

But even that projection seems to rely heavily on the unknown promise of the Boomers. The Bureau also predicts Florida's average age will increase by about eight years in that span.

The school problem

Manatee County schools enjoyed years of growth. That ended in 2006, when according to the Florida Department of Education, the district became virtually stagnant at 42,242 students.

Superintendent Dr. Roger Dearing said from a capital standpoint, the slowdown hasn't been bad. The district has in recent years raced to provide classrooms to comply with the class-size amendment. That's led to about 285 portables, many rented. The district will still add about 200 teachers this year. The stagnation allows a chance to catch up.

"The no growth scenario has been a blessing for us," Dearing said.

But it's also a crossed blessing, he acknowledges. Pinellas County has lost thousands of students, and is talking about closing schools. Statewide, schools went from a growth of about 34,000 students from 04/05 to 05/06 to a new loss at the beginning of 06/07, the first in more than two decades

Politics

For years, politicians have used the Boomers as a bargaining chip. From the bench, they would often say that the Boomers are coming, using it as a reason to vote for a motion. Sen. Mike Bennett doesn't like that argument.

"I never thought it was a good argument," he said. "Everybody wants to look for some other way to avoid dealing with the problem."

Bennett has a bit more of a pessimistic outlook than others.

"We're going to see a decrease across the state primarily because of our cost of living down here," he said. "I think people are going to say, 'You know what? I can't afford to live here anymore.'"

Bennett and Rep. Ron Reagan are part of a state legislature that's been embroiled in a much-ballyhooed debate about taxes, insurance and the recent loss of affordability. They say the state needs to change its outlook on growth and encourage economic viability.

"Growth is not bad - it's not. It's just the way we've done it," Bennett said. "People are going to see that growth is not a bad thing. I think they're going to miss it a little bit."

Reagan said the Baby Boomers have to be taken into consideration. People now are hesitating, he said. They need to be convinced about Florida.

"I want to make sure Florida is at the top of their list of places to move," he said.

Can we count on the Boomers?

That remains to be seen. But there are plenty of concerns. According to a 2003 Census report, about 60% of full-time workers at age 55 or above were earning less than $50,000 a year, and about 10% earned more than $100,000 a year. The number of Boomers who can afford a house in Florida at current prices is a question.

There's also competition. Many other Sunbelt states are touting their attractiveness to retirees. Among those are the Carolinas and Georgia, states along the Interstate 75 and Interstate 95 corridors, which have traditionally brought Midwesterners and Northeasterners respectively to Florida. Those states may draw retirees with a mix of affordability, seasonal weather and proximity.

At stake is the economic boost retirees will bring. The census bureau predicts Boomers will each spend more than $3,000 annually on health care alone. Can Florida still get them?

I think the Baby Boomers will still look at Florida first," Reagan said.

BY THE NUMBERS

Population

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Manatee 280,206 287,109 296,876 306,254 313,298

Florida 16,682,250 16,981,800 17,366,593 17,768,191 18,089,888

School membership PK-12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Manatee 39,106 40,254 41,065 42,353 42,242

Florida 2,539,932 2,596,524 2,634,223 2,668,337 2,662,701

Projections

Census 2000 2010 2020 2030

Population 15,982,378 19,251,691 23,406,525 28,685,769

Median Age 38.7 41.9 44.1 45.4

East County Population (by zip codes)

34201 1,877

34202 15,335

34203 26,017

34208 30,750

34212 Not Available

34232 31,969

34243 20,508