GULF COAST ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

GULF COAST ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay shows strength in total numbers

Aggregate population growth in Collier and Lee is expected to outpace Hillsborough-Pinellas.

Pasco County is expected to show the highest growth rate in population through 2009, according to the Orlando-based economics firm of Fishkind & Associates. And not far behind: Lee County.

But here's an eye-opener: From 2005 through 2009, total population growth in Lee and Collier counties is expected to be greater than total population growth in the Gulf Coast's two most populous counties, Hillsborough and Pinellas. Lee and Collier will have added 178,196 people from 2005-2009 compared to the increase in Hillsborough and Pinellas of 137,566.

But add in the growth of Pasco County for the Tampa Bay region and that three-county region is expected to grow by 223,295 people from 2005-2009.

Forecasts show Lee County to show the highest employment growth both as a percentage (21.1%) and as a gross change from 2005 to 2009, with 44,893 new jobs.

Fishkind also is projecting a drop in total income for the five-year period for all the counties except Lee. Lee's income was projected to improve by $557 million, up 2.9% from 2005.

The two slowest-growing counties in aggregate population growth: Charlotte, which is expected to add 15,899 people from 2005-09, and Sarasota, which will add 44,494 people.

Fishkind's county comparisons, 2005-2009 Oct. 26, 2006

Charlotte County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 154,030 159,029 163,709 168,239 172,884 12.2%

Population Change -2,955 4,999 4,680 4,530 4,645

Employment 44,518 45,185 45,807 46,414 47,032 5.65%

Employment Change 1,230 667 622 606 619

Income ($billions) 4,142 4,187 3,755 3,829 3,919 -5.4%

Unemployment Rate 4 3 4 4 4

Total Housing Starts 3,848 3,512 2,372 2,328 2,365

Single Family 2,782 2,175 1,843 1,816 1,821

Multifamily 1,066 1,337 529 512 544

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 0 631,129 590,855 571,917 586,436

Retail Local 0 119,139 111,537 107,962 110,703

Retail Regional 0 99,347 93,007 90,026 92,312

Hotel 0 9,626 9,012 8,723 8,945

Office 0 124,669 116,713 112,973 115,840

Industrial 0 1,806 1,691 1,637 1,678

Warehouse 0 116,180 108,767 105,280 107,953

Institutional Gov. 0 160,361 150,128 145,316 149,005

Collier County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 317,788 330,010 342,066 354,007 366,117 15.2%

Population Change 11,602 12,222 12,056 11,941 12,110

Employment 127,677 132,388 137,222 142,014 146,866 15.0%

Employment Change 6,571 4,711 4,834 4,792 4,853

Income ($billions) 13,726 14,677 10,456 10,360 10,889 -20.7%

Unemployment Rate 3 2 5 5 4

Total Housing Starts 5,977 5,723 5,646 5,583 5,672

Single Family 3,914 3,513 3,464 3,423 3,477

Multifamily 2,063 2,210 2,182 2,160 2,195

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 1,957,430 2,062,033 2,034,026 2,014,624 2,043,137

Retail Local 29,530 31,108 30,686 30,393 30,823

Retail Regional 180,057 189,679 187,103 185,318 187,941

Hotel 44,521 46,901 46,264 45,822 46,471

Office 0 0 0 0 0

Industrial 24,267 25,564 25,217 24,977 25,330

Warehouse 0 0 0 0 0

Hospital 18,485 19,473 19,209 19,025 19,295

Institutional Gov. 1,660,568 1,749,307 1,725,548 1,709,088 1,733,276

Lee County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 549,442 572,241 593,729 614,991 639,518 16.4%

Population Change 28,189 22,799 21,488 21,262 24,527

Employment 212,823 224,449 235,580 246,123 257,716 21.1%

Employment Change 15,650 11,626 11,131 10,543 11,593

Income ($billions) 18,942 20,769 18,357 18,731 19,499 2.9%

Unemployment Rate 3 2 4 4 3

Total Housing Starts 27,600 22,029 18,256 11,567 11,807

Single Family 22,032 17,131 14,351 7,909 8,054

Multifamily 5,568 4,898 3,904 3,658 3,753

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 7,617,939 6,161,318 5,807,026 5,745,951 6,628,301

Retail Local 1,161,879 939,717 885,681 876,366 1,010,941

Retail Regional 824,421 666,784 628,442 621,832 717,321

Hotel 354,573 286,776 270,285 267,443 308,511

Office 720,582 582,800 549,287 543,510 626,972

Industrial 336,780 272,385 256,722 254,022 293,030

Warehouse 2,031,541 1,643,091 1,548,610 1,532,322 1,767,626

Hospital 66,204 53,545 50,466 49,935 57,603

Institutional Gov. 2,121,959 1,716,221 1,617,534 1,600,521 1,846,298

Hillsborough County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 1,131,550 1,155,510 1,179,040 1,203,180 1,228,340 8.6%

Population Change 23,110 23,960 23,530 24,140 25,160

Employment 628,476 636,341 642,920 651,472 664,315 5.7%

Employment Change 19,031 7,865 6,578 8,552 12,844

Income ($billions) 38,483 41,938 31,969 32,819 34,110 -11.4%

Unemployment Rate 4 3 4 4 4

Total Housing Starts 15,572 13,842 10,550 10,665 11,275

Single Family 12,621 10,366 8,526 8,241 8,675

Multifamily 2,951 3,475 2,023 2,424 2,600

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 6,986,956 7,243,941 6,963,937 7,848,361 8,606,742

Retail Local 850,058 881,324 765,507 987,945 1,125,464

Retail Regional 502,053 520,519 461,177 624,429 896,588

Hotel 421,296 436,791 428,953 440,073 458,668

Office 1,278,292 1,325,309 1,301,524 1,585,265 1,641,685

Industrial 151,808 157,392 154,567 258,574 365,274

Warehouse 1,575,547 1,633,497 1,604,181 1,645,769 1,715,308

Hospital 153,400 159,042 156,188 160,237 167,007

Institutional Gov. 2,054,501 2,130,067 2,091,840 2,146,069 2,236,748

Manatee County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 304,364 313,457 322,429 331,398 341,409 12.2%

Population Change 9,122 9,093 8,972 8,969 10,011

Employment 123,456 126,936 129,483 133,276 138,676 12.3%

Employment Change 3,958 3,479 2,548 3,793 5,400

Income ($billions) 10,462 11,156 8,923 9,165 9,536 -8.9%

Unemployment Rate 3 3 4 4 4

Total Housing Starts 5,964 5,257 4,433 3,744 4,627

Single Family 4,649 4,043 3,241 2,843 3,514

Multifamily 1,315 1,214 1,193 901 1,113

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 2,580,155 2,571,952 2,537,727 2,836,879 3,281,608

Retail Local 355,185 354,055 349,344 399,227 489,800

Retail Regional 336,359 335,289 330,828 480,717 569,139

Hotel 98,461 98,148 96,842 96,810 108,057

Office 292,353 291,424 287,546 387,450 470,845

Industrial 792,254 789,736 779,227 778,966 869,465

Warehouse 405,411 404,122 398,744 398,611 444,921

Hospital 44,584 44,442 43,851 43,836 48,929

Institutional Gov. 255,547 254,735 251,345 251,261 280,452

Pasco County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 406,898 421,848 436,232 455,280 475,505 16.9%

Population Change 17,122 14,950 14,384 19,048 20,225

Employment 91,300 95,555 99,649 103,646 107,838 18.1%

Employment Change 7,139 4,255 4,094 3,996 4,193

Income ($billions) 11,442 12,569 8,988 9,229 9,471 -17.2%

Unemployment Rate 4 3 5 5 5

Total Housing Starts 9,483 8,334 8,009 7,834 9,655

Single Family 7,547 6,787 6,524 6,385 8,135

Multifamily 1,937 1,547 1,485 1,448 1,520

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 2,450,945 2,140,032 2,059,011 2,726,644 2,895,127

Retail Local 401,489 350,559 337,287 446,651 474,251

Retail Regional 538,090 469,831 452,044 598,618 635,608

Hotel 20,576 17,966 17,286 22,891 24,305

Office 243,591 212,691 204,638 270,992 287,737

Industrial 191,400 167,120 160,793 212,930 226,087

Warehouse 558,769 487,887 469,416 621,624 660,035

Hospital 0 0 0 0 0

Institutional Gov. 497,028 433,978 417,548 552,937 587,104

Pinellas County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 947,744 951,264 954,446 957,604 961,306 1.4%

Population Change 4,104 3,520 3,182 3,158 3,702

Employment 462,047 466,274 470,099 473,895 478,273 3.5%

Employment Change 6,617 4,227 3,826 3,795 4,378

Income ($billions) 35,674 38,156 31,951 32,439 32,821 -8.0%

Unemployment Rate 4 3 4 4 3

Total Housing Starts 3,761 2,408 2,016 1,716 1,766

Single Family 2,765 1,533 1,379 1,175 1,389

Multifamily 996 875 637 542 377

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 2,824,477 2,422,554 2,189,933 2,323,416 2,897,811

Retail Local 127,822 109,632 99,105 98,358 165,301

Retail Regional 438,951 376,489 340,337 387,770 495,955

Hotel 93,290 80,015 72,332 71,786 84,152

Office 492,059 422,039 381,513 478,636 643,860

Industrial 353,610 303,291 274,169 272,101 318,973

Warehouse 455,687 390,843 353,313 350,648 411,051

Hospital 66,341 56,901 51,437 51,049 59,843

Institutional Gov. 796,717 683,344 617,727 613,068 718,676

Sarasota County

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 5 Yr. Chg.

Population 367,867 377,242 385,535 393,398 402,801 9.5%

Population Change 9,560 9,375 8,293 7,863 9,403

Employment 159,321 162,756 166,204 170,414 175,580 10.2%

Employment Change 4,723 3,435 3,449 4,209 5,166

Income ($billions) 16,272 17,199 14,432 14,800 15,156 -6.9%

Unemployment Rate 3 2 3 3 3

Total Housing Starts 8,161 5,470 5,183 4,759 5,593

Single Family 6,801 4,301 4,208 4,307 5,137

Multifamily 1,360 1,169 975 452 456

Com. Const. (Sq Ft) 1,491,396 1,462,535 1,293,739 1,426,657 1,791,903

Retail Local 148,906 146,024 129,171 172,474 221,461

Retail Regional 275,182 269,857 238,712 301,334 370,663

Hotel 267,820 262,637 232,325 220,279 263,422

Office 193,080 189,344 167,491 208,807 289,910

Industrial 54,491 53,437 47,270 44,819 53,597

Warehouse 224,704 220,356 194,924 184,817 221,014

Hospital 0 0 0 25,000 50,000

Institutional Gov. 327,212 320,880 283,846 269,128 321,838

MEDIAN HOME SALE PRICES, MSAs

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % Chg. '97 vs. '06

STATEWIDE $95,800 $99,800 $108,400 $117,600 $126,600 $141,700 $155,800 $181,900 $235,200 $248,300 159%

Fort Myers-Cape Coral $94,000 $98,400 $105,300 $116,100 $129,900 $139,700 $156,600 $192,700 $281,900 $272,300 189%

Naples-Marco Island $164,000 $175,400 $209,300 $239,000 $237,500 $263,700 $291,400 $371,700 $486,500 $486,500 196%

Punta Gorda $79,000 $81,500 $79,900 $88,300 $101,700 $121,600 $134,300 $167,100 $219,700 $218,000 176%

Sarasota-Bradenton $108,300 $119,100 $129,700 $138,500 $151,500 $163,700 $189,700 $244,100 $322,700 $305,200 182%

Tampa-St. Petersburg Clearwater $84,000 $88,000 $94,700 $105,800 $124,400 $133,300 $139,300 $159,900 $201,700 $229,100 173%

Source: Florida Association of Realtors

TOTAL SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES, MSAs

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total sales

STATEWIDE 130,590 140,321 148,361 159,114 140,364 179,631 218,739 242,597 248,575 180,037 1,788,329

Fort Myers-Cape Coral 3,364 3,542 4,997 5,341 6,769 7,706 9,059 9,612 12,273 9,189 71,852

Naples-Marco Island 1,826 1,901 2,698 3,140 3,315 3,927 4,225 4,857 4,846 2,863 33,598

Punta Gorda 2,145 2,516 1,378 2,221 1,807 2,762 2,871 3,363 4,029 3,050 26,142

Sarasota-Bradenton 6,862 7,280 6,598 7,226 6,998 8,173 11,453 14,292 12,059 7,941 88,882

Tampa-St. Petersburg Clearwater 25,018 25,844 24,873 28,253 14,518 25,925 40,867 47,639 53,183 34,322 320,442

Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Steady climb, sudden fall

The two tables above confirm the long-running trends on the Gulf Coast: Home-value appreciation was highest where there was the fastest growth. Naples-Marco Island and Fort Myers-Cape Coral areas showed the greatest price appreciation over the past decade.

But here's a surprise: When you compare the aggregate volume of home sales by Metropolitan Statistical Areas, the Sarasota-Bradenton MSA outpaced the volume of sales in Fort Myers-Cape Coral, a metro area that is more populous than Sarasot-Bradenton.

If you study the home sales table, you'll also see the big spike in home sales from 2003 to 2005. Note in particular the spike in Sarasota-Bradenton. And then, boom: Its sales declined 34% from 2005 to 2006.

The table at right also confirms what we already know - we're in the midst of an economic downturn, a rare occurrence over the past decade. Hardest-hit counties also happened to be two of the Gulf Coast's fastest-growing counties: Charlotte and Collier.

SHORT-TERM SLOWDOWN

Gross sales tax collections for the 12 months ending June 30

2005-2006 2006-2007 % Chg.

Sarasota 13,348,337,215 10,979,331,318 -18%

Pasco 9,024,991,586 7,103,599,861 -21%

Manatee 9,906,134,123 7,523,885,974 -24%

Pinellas 34,745,393,400 26,450,197,620 -24%

Hillsborough 60,241,362,155 45,350,592,803 -25%

Lee 20,792,300,550 15,595,595,711 -25%

Charlotte 4,160,660,665 3,073,155,331 -26%

Collier 12,245,964,910 8,989,717,548 -26%

Out of State 138,834,850,490 112,227,306,340 -19%

In/Out State 2,305,945,014 1,967,071,717 -14%

State Total 871,482,853,098 692,946,955,362 -20%

Source: Florida Department of Revenue