Collier, Lee Lead; Pinellas Stagnant

Collier, Lee Lead; Pinellas Stagnant

In Fishkind & Associates' newest 2004 forecast, the region's two southernmost counties will top the population growth charts again. Pinellas and Sarasota are growing at the slowest rates.

By Sean Roth

Real Estate Editor

The Orlando economic consulting firm of Fishkind & Associates Inc. has released its latest economic forecast for Florida. With the exception of some minor blips, the Gulf Coast market is projected to continue to grow and expand at or near the state average.

On the positive side, all of the eight counties in GCBR's coverage area met or exceeded the state average of 2.3% for job growth. In addition, all of the counties exceeded the average state personal income growth rate by almost a percent over the state average of 4.1%.

But the figures project less than average growth in two categories. The biggest surprise is that Fishkind expects only one Gulf Coast county to exceed the state average in housing starts growth. In fact, most of the regions are projected to see significant declines in housing starts, notably Pinellas County with a negative 30.8% and Charlotte County with a negative 24.3%. The only exception is Collier County, which is projected to experience more than a 1,000 new home starts from 2003 to 2004 giving it a 19.5% growth rate.

The region did not fare well in the area of commercial construction growth; five of the counties were below the state average by more than a point and a half. The three exceptions were Manatee, Collier and Pasco counties. Lee joined two northern counties (Hillsborough and Pinellas) at the bottom of the lists with 7.7%, 5.1% and 3.9% respectively.

In the area of population growth, the Gulf Coast region performed reasonably well; five of the counties exceeded the state average.

The most mixed indicator came in the area of overnight tourist visitor growth. Hillsborough, Lee, Collier and Manatee beat the state average rate of 7.3% growth, while the other four counties fell behind.

Comparatively, Collier was projected to see the greatest growth in 2004. It was projected to have the greatest growth in population (5.4%) and housing starts (19.5%) and the second greatest growth in commercial construction (11.2%). On the other hand, it is much more middle of the road in its growth of personal income and jobs.

Following a close second for performance was Manatee, which led all eight regions in commercial construction growth and personal income growth. It was second in total housing starts growth behind Collier. Where it really lagged was in the sector of job growth; overall it was sixth, ahead of only Pasco and Pinellas.

The biggest loser by growth rate was Pinellas, the most densely populated county in Florida. Pinellas had the lowest population growth, lowest total housing starts, job growth and commercial construction growth. It only stepped out of last place in the categories of personal income and overnight tourist growth, where it finished fourth and sixth respectively. This is mostly attributable to the county being almost completely developed.

However, looking at Fishkind's total projected numbers for 2004, a different group of winners and losers emerges. Hillsborough had the highest aggregate numbers in every category except for personal income and overnight tourism, where it was listed second and fourth. Pinellas County followed along behind with first place finishes in overnight tourism and personal income and second place ratings in population, employment and commercial construction.

Charlotte falls on the other side of the line. The least developed of all eight Gulf Coast counties, Charlotte has the smallest aggregate amount projected for 2004 in five categories and was listed seventh by overnight tourism. Manatee was just aheadof Charlotte in total aggregates with seventh place rankings in three of the categories (behind only Charlotte) and two fifth place finishes: housing starts and job growth.

CONSTRUCTION BY SECTOR

Numbers in square feet

Charlotte County2004

Comm. Construction709,5027.8%

Retail Local108,3591.9%

Retail Regional99,09415.5%

Hotel84,238-2.1%

Office120,75717.4%

Industrial14,17524.0%

Warehouse49,36252.0%

Hospital17,838-2.9%

Institutional/Govt215,6790.5%

Collier County2004

Comm. Construction1,920,30311.2%

Retail Local221,0837.4%

Retail Regional273,75214.3%

Hotel162,1762.7%

Office413,0069.5%

Industrial110,62034.6%

Warehouse265,42823.6%

Hospital51,4047.0%

Institutional/Govt422,8355.5%

Hillsborough County2004

Comm. Construction6,620,1665.1%

Retail Local747,8242.6%

Retail Regional985,6112.9%

Hotel409,6383.4%

Office1,092,0047.9%

Industrial355,27211.5%

Warehouse1,716,5646.1%

Hospital00.0%

Institutional/Govt1,313,2532.9%

Lee County2004

Comm. Construction2,496,5877.7%

Retail Local348,4145.7%

Retail Regional398,5219.3%

Hotel183,6152.1%

Office345,5638.0%

Industrial115,7207.4%

Warehouse467,27614.7%

Hospital19,4745.5%

Institutional/Govt618,0044.7%

Manatee County2004

Comm. Construction1,658,71416.0%

Retail Local179,9723.5%

Retail Regional124,4527.5%

Hotel33,18943.5%

Office328,00417.0%

Industrial141,33935.6%

Warehouse442,79729.8%

Hospital14,6004.0%

Institutional/Govt394,3614.6%

Pasco County2004

Comm. Construction1,665,57910.3%

Retail Local270,1815.5%

Retail Regional323,31610.3%

Hotel31,3892.9%

Office313,65313.3%

Industrial85,8009.6%

Warehouse157,76240.0%

Hospital00.0%

Institutional/Govt483,4794.7%

Pinellas County2004

Comm. Construction4,374,6453.9%

Retail Local166,4721.0%

Retail Regional466,9372.6%

Hotel197,8232.8%

Office1,148,2847.6%

Industrial614,5702.9%

Warehouse419,3565.9%

Hospital186,7840.7%

Institutional/Govt1,174,4201.8%

Sarasota County2004

Comm. Construction2,127,3588.1%

Retail Local249,4524.6%

Retail Regional294,8589.6%

Hotel173,9793.0%

Office433,51411.5%

Industrial123,88025.0%

Warehouse344,0769.3%

Hospital31,1943.8%

Institutional/Govt476,4064.1%

HOW THE COUNTIES COMPARE FOR 2004

The following tables rank the Gulf Coast counties by percentage change (2003 vs. 2004) and aggregate growth in various economic measurements as reported by Fishkind & Associates' new 2004 economic forecast. Fishkind & Associates is an Orlando-based economic forecasting and consulting firm.

FASTEST GROWING

1. Collier County5.4%

2. Lee County4.8%

3. Pasco County4%

4. Manatee County3.3%

5. Sarasota County3.1%

6. Charlotte County2.1%

6. Hillsborough County2.1%

8. Pinellas County0.6%

AGGREGATE POPULATION GROWTH

1. Hillsborough County1,101438

2. Pinellas County945,700

3. Lee County524,312

4. Pasco County390,453

5. Sarasota County359,447

6. Collier County307,680

7. Manatee County294,778

8. Charlotte County155,192

Florida17,431,683

TOTAL HOUSING STARTS GROWTH

1. Collier County19.5%

2. Manatee County5.3%

3. Pasco County3.2%

4. Sarasota County-3.5%

5. Hillsborough County-9.4%

6. Lee County-9.7%

7. Charlotte County-24.3%

8. Pinellas County-30.8%

AGGREGATE HOUSING STARTS

1. Hillsborough County12,675

2. Lee County12,345

3. Pasco County6,934

4. Collier County6,821

5. Manatee County4,771

6. Sarasota County4,652

7. Pinellas County2,493

8. Charlotte County1,717

FASTEST JOB GROWTH

1. Charlotte County4.1%

2. Lee County3.9%

3. Sarasota County3.5%

4. Collier County3.4

4. Hillsborough County3.4

6. Manatee County2.6%

7. Pasco County2.4%

8. Pinellas County2.3%

AGGREGATE JOB GROWTH

1. Hillsborough County625,979

2. Pinellas County465,043

3. Lee County187,469

4. Sarasota County153,226

5. Manatee County122,790

6. Collier County116,620

7. Pasco County78,828

8. Charlotte County40,779

COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION

1. Manatee County16%

2. Collier County11.2%

3. Pasco County10.3%

4. Sarasota County8.1%

5. Charlotte County7.8%

6. Lee County7.7%

7. Hillsborough County5.1%

8. Pinellas County3.9%

TOTAL NEW COMMERCIAL SPACE

1. Hillsborough County6,620,166

2. Pinellas County4,374,645

3. Lee County2,496,587

4. Sarasota County2,127,358

5. Collier County1,920,303

6. Pasco County1,665,579

7. Manatee County1,658,714

8. Charlotte County709,502

OVERNIGHT TOURISM GROWTH

1. Hillsborough County11.5%

2. Lee County11%

3. Collier County8%

4. Manatee County7.5%

5. Sarasota County7.2%

6. Pinellas County4%

7. Charlotte County2.7%

8. Pasco County1.1%

TOTAL OVERNIGHT TOURISTS

1. Pinellas County4,019,303

2. Lee County3,976,065

3. Collier County2,959,392

4. Hillsborough County2,929,060

5. Sarasota County2,093,985

6. Manatee County1,392,362

7. Charlotte County507,080

8. Pasco County316,075

TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH

1. Manatee County11.5%

2. Pasco County8.6%

3. Hillsborough County6.5%

4. Pinellas County6.2%

5. Collier County5.8%

6. Sarasota County5.3%

7. Lee County5.2%

8. Charlotte County5%

AGGREGATE PERSONAL INCOME

1. Pinellas County$36.1 billion

2. Hillsborough County$34.3 billion

3. Lee County$14.1 billion

4. Sarasota County$13.9 billion

5. Collier County$12.7 billion

6. Pasco County$11.4 billion

7. Manatee County$10.7 billion

8. Charlotte County$4.2 billion