Recession warning sign? Layoffs pick up between June and August

For almost two years now, the No. 1 challenge facing most companies along the Gulf Coast is there is a labor shortage, that there aren’t enough employees to staff restaurants and retail stores.

Nationally, the news is similar. Or better. An Aug. 5 job’s report from the U.S. Labor Department, for example, said employers added 528,000 jobs in July and that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, the lowest it’s been in 50 years.

Bloomberg, in a headline, called the job market “sizzling” and said it should abate fears of a recession.

While that is obviously good news for the economy, a look at the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity’s WARN Notice database paints what could be a worrisome picture. (Federal law requires companies provide the state with Worker Adjustment Retraining and Notification notices when making job cuts.)

Between June 2 and Aug. 2, 14 companies statewide announced cuts totaling 1,284 jobs.

Although that might not seem like a lot in a state as large as Florida, or even as many as in a single month by a single company in times past, it could be the much-ballyhooed canary in the coal mine.

Read more: Recession conundrum reaches deep into the region, with multiplying impact

Unlike in different periods of the year, the batch of job cuts between June and the beginning of August came from a larger number of companies and wasn’t inflated by one employer making a massive cut.

For example, it took until nearly three months, March 28, this year for 12 employers to layoff 1,849 employees. But those job cuts included Bayada Home Health Care which laid off 682 employees across the Tampa Bay region in early January. 

And then between April and the beginning of June, 2,388 jobs were cut by 10 employers. Of those, 949 were layoffs Aramark at University of Florida and 426 were in Panama City from Atlanta-based WestRock Services. 

So, the difference, and what could be a warning sign, between the two earlier periods of the year, is that between June and July more companies cut more jobs. This at a time when the jobs market is supposed to be performing at its peak and there are supposed to be more open positions than people.

Whether that is a trend or an outlier, or even a cause for concern, remains to be seen.